On Monday, EUR/USD resumed its decline toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1325. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some upward movement toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1416. A consolidation below 1.1325 would increase the likelihood of further decline toward the next Fibonacci level at 127.2% and 1.1220.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low and has continued to develop for the fourth consecutive week. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening by the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to provide strong support for the U.S. currency.

There was no significant news background on Monday, but bearish traders resumed their selling activity. There is little else to add. The euro continues to decline sharply. The decline has continued almost every day, which inevitably raises the question of whether the ECB is conducting any currency interventions. Let me remind you that the only reason for the sharp rise in the U.S. dollar so far has been the FOMC's monetary policy tightening. I would also remind you that the Fed meeting took place two weeks ago, while the dollar continued to rise both before and after the meeting. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Fed's monetary policy is the reason for the pair's decline at the end of September. There are no other obvious reasons. This week, several important U.S. reports on the labor market, unemployment, and business activity will be released, but it is unlikely that the movement we are currently seeing is a reaction to reports that have not yet been released. Geopolitical developments also do not support the view that the dollar is currently in demand as a safe-haven asset. There have been no new missile strikes or other signs of escalation in the Middle East recently.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after a bullish divergence formed on the CCI indicator, but the euro's rise did not last long. The decline has already resumed toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.1325. A consolidation below this level would indicate the possibility of further decline. A break below the level would signal further downside. No new developing divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 11,708 Long positions and 37,049 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war in Iran, while over the past 26 weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid market expectations that the conflict would end. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 221,000, compared with 273,000 Short positions. The bears remain in the lead.

Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. In particular, the market is currently closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East, where the war appears to end and then resume. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's direction on its own. At the same time, the FOMC's more hawkish monetary policy stance has strengthened the dollar in recent months.

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (11:00 UTC).
• United States – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC).
• United States – CB Consumer Confidence Index (14:00 UTC).

On September 29, the economic calendar contains three entries, none of which I consider particularly significant. The impact of the economic news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be weak or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Buying opportunities are possible today following a rebound from 1.1325 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1473 and 1.1519. Selling opportunities are possible following a close below 1.1325, with a target of 1.1220.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849 to 1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.