On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3272 on Monday, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and resumed its decline toward the 1.3164–1.3177 support level. A consolidation above 1.3272 would allow traders to expect further growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3368.

The market situation remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave, which is still forming, broke the previous low. Thus, the bears now control the initiative. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh have sharply strengthened the dollar. A break in the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567 or after two bullish waves have formed.

There was no significant news background on Monday, and once again I have to say that bearish traders are acting on a factor that emerged two weeks ago and has long since lost its relevance. Despite the desire to find reasons for another strengthening of the U.S. dollar, it is now practically impossible to do so. This is especially true after the dollar has already risen by 360 points over the past three weeks and by 470 points over the past month and a half. I am even beginning to wonder what will happen if the Fed raises the interest rate by another 25 basis points at its next meeting. Will the dollar gain another 500 points? And will the market then expect another three rounds of monetary policy tightening? In my view, the bears continue to push the market lower without sufficient justification, while the pound sterling does not deserve such treatment. The news background will again be weak today, as only one report is scheduled for release during the day, and traders have already ignored it this morning. The U.S. JOLTS job openings report will be released in the second half of the day, but who is interested in this report now if the dollar is rising again from the very beginning of the day?

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD consolidated below the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3277, allowing traders to expect a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level at 100.0% and 1.3159. A bullish divergence in the CCI indicator allowed the pair to return to 1.3277, but the rebound from this level again favored the dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3159. There are no developing divergences today, but in any case, they do not prevent the bears from continuing to push the pair lower.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 14,876, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,977. The current gap between Long and Short positions is effectively 54,000 versus 137,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are increasing again. Previously, the bears' dominance was not in question, but now it is, as the news background has changed in recent months.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC).
• United States – CB Consumer Confidence Index (14:00 UTC).

On September 29, the economic calendar contains two entries. The impact of the economic news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be weak or absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling opportunities were available following a consolidation below 1.3272 or a rebound from the same level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3177. These trades can remain open. Buying opportunities are possible today following a rebound from the 1.3164–1.3177 level, with a target of 1.3272.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3272 to 1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.